Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

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Winnie
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Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

Postby Winnie » Wed May 04, 2016 10:51 am

Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

ORANGE – Vaccines, environmental triggers, parental age – it’s highly unlikely that any of those are driving the dramatic increase in the autism rate, a Chapman University study found.

Rather, the study concluded the rate – which is now 1 in 50 in Orange County, the highest in the state – can be “almost completely” explained by a change in how the disorder is diagnosed.

Two Chapman researchers analyzed 15 years of state special education eligibility data and found many students who once would have been considered to have a condition called Specific Learning Disability are now told they have autism.

If the findings are correct, the prevalence of autism hasn’t actually changed; it’s just changed names.

The Chapman researchers aren’t the first to reach this conclusion.

Article continues: http://www.ocregister.com/articles/autism-714688-chapman-study.html
Winnie
"Make it a powerful memory, the happiest you can remember."

Winnie
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Re: Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

Postby Winnie » Mon May 23, 2016 12:35 pm

Link to the recent study presented at the Chapman University DisAbility Summit examining diagnostic migration from the category of Specific Learning Disability in CA:

WHY HAS THE RATE OF AUTISM INCREASED SO DRAMATICALLY? IT MAY NOT BE WHAT YOU THINK:
http://www.chapman.edu/ces/research/thompson-policy-institute/_files/tpi-outcomes-summary-2016.pdf

• Contrary to media reports, the increase of autism is not adding kids to the number of children with disabilities.

• The increased rate of autism can be strongly explained by migration within disability categories. Diagnostic Migration.

• Environmental and human contributions do not account for an important increase in autism rates.
Winnie
"Make it a powerful memory, the happiest you can remember."

Mouse
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Re: Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

Postby Mouse » Wed Jun 08, 2016 6:38 pm

There are lies, darn lies, then there are vaccine/autism studies and statistics.
Instead of asking a scientist paid to hide the increase, you'd get more honesty from a public school special ed teacher with 30 years of experience. Even more so would be to ask several hundred if they see an increase in autism or are perfectly normal kids getting shill diagnoses.

When I was in high school roughly 20 years ago my school student population had about 1,500 students. Of 1,500 students there were 7 students in special ed. None of them had autism, or at least they don't resemble the kids of today. There were the occasional weird and shy kids, but they weren't flapping their arms nor spun in circles, they played Magic the Gathering card games.
My son recently left his special needs school with roughly 30 children many of which can't talk, or talk well. I doubt it's better recognition, and all teachers I've spoken with notice a change too.

Winnie
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Re: Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

Postby Winnie » Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:47 am

Mouse wrote:There are lies, darn lies, then there are vaccine/autism studies and statistics.
Instead of asking a scientist paid to hide the increase, you'd get more honesty from a public school special ed teacher with 30 years of experience. Even more so would be to ask several hundred if they see an increase in autism or are perfectly normal kids getting shill diagnoses.

Obviously you didn’t even read the study, otherwise you would know that it is not at all a vaccine/autism study, and also that it is an independent study:

THOMPSON POLICY INSTITUTE (TPI) on Disability and Autism at Chapman University gathers data and develops its own independent research to study critical issues in disability and autism. The TPI’s purpose is to provide independent information on significant topics related to disability and facilitate action in areas that require community change.


Mouse wrote:When I was in high school roughly 20 years ago my school student population had about 1,500 students. Of 1,500 students there were 7 students in special ed. None of them had autism, or at least they don't resemble the kids of today.

Okay, let’s check your memory with the facts. According to you, roughly 20 years ago (1996), of 1,500 students, 7 were receiving special education services. According to my math, that would be about .005% of students in your school receiving special education services (number served as a percent of total enrollment).

So let’s go back even a few more years, to 1992-93, to national data, where you will see the under "Number served as a percent of total enrollment," the total number of children with disabilities (ages 3-21) in public schools served by special education in 1992-93 is 11.97%. That is significantly more than the .005% you claim. Either your memory is faulty, your school was quite an anomaly, or you are just telling a "darn lie." Data (see "Number served as a percent of total enrollment under 1992-93" -- far right):
http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d95/dtab051.asp

So no one really noticed the 11.97% of children in 1992-93 who had disabilities and were receiving special education via public schools, but the 12.9% in 2013 (see below) constitutes a tsunami of vaccine-induced neurodevelopmental disabilities??? And surely our awareness and ability to identify children with special needs – autism especially -- has improved in 23 years, as has inclusion. The severely-affected students may not have been served in your school.

Which brings us to the more current data of the same – it seems to show trends similar to those noted in the CA study:

See Table 204.30.-- Children 3 to 21 years old served under Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA), Part B, by type of disability: Selected years, 1976-77 through 2012-13:
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d14/tables/dt14_204.30.asp

See second chart -- "Percentage distribution of children served" -- note the dropping percentage in the disability categories of Specific Learning Disability, Intellectual Disability, and Emotional Disturbance as the percentage in the Autism category increases.

So using your vaccine logic, whatever is causing autism appears to be curing SLD, ID, and ED. The total percentage of students served in special education is not increasing, but the numbers are shifting among the disability categories.
Winnie
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Mouse
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Re: Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

Postby Mouse » Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:38 pm

Okay, let’s check your memory with the facts. According to you, roughly 20 years ago (1996), of 1,500 students, 7 were receiving special education services. According to my math, that would be about .005% of students in your school receiving special education services (number served as a percent of total enrollment).

So you're still clairvoyant I see? There were 7 in special ed class for the whole school, I never said how many are receiving special ed services or special accommodations. There was also an 8.5 grade for lower IQ kids that aged out of 8th and got pushed into high school. However in the 90s I've never seen a child with autism. I've never seen kids spin in circles or flap their arms at that point. My spouse only knew of one autistic child back in the late 80s.

Winnie
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Re: Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

Postby Winnie » Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:25 am

Mouse wrote:
Okay, let’s check your memory with the facts. According to you, roughly 20 years ago (1996), of 1,500 students, 7 were receiving special education services. According to my math, that would be about .005% of students in your school receiving special education services (number served as a percent of total enrollment).

So you're still clairvoyant I see?

No, I'm not the one claiming to know the special ed numbers, diagnoses, and IQ levels of people in my high school over 20 years ago. ;)

Mouse wrote:There were 7 in special ed class for the whole school, I never said how many are receiving special ed services or special accommodations.

No, this is what you said:

Mouse wrote:When I was in high school roughly 20 years ago my school student population had about 1,500 students. Of 1,500 students there were 7 students in special ed. None of them had autism, or at least they don't resemble the kids of today.

FYI, all students receiving special ed services ARE in special ed. All students in special education are determined to be eligible under an IDEA disability category.

Let's return to the facts. Have you read the CA study yet? I'll try to explain (again) how the national data shows similar trends.

Here is the national compiled data that covers the time period you said you attended high school (20 years ago) -- 1995-96. Note that the percentage of public school students, ages 3-21, in special education, is 12.4% (see 3rd chart -- number as a percentage of total enrollment, All Disabilities):
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d09/tables/dt09_050.asp

Here is data up to 2013-2014 (most recent I could find) – note that the percentage of public school students, ages 3-21, in special education, is 12.9% (see 3rd chart -- number as a percentage of total enrollment, All Disabilities):
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d15/tables/dt15_204.30.asp

Trying to keep it simple for the purposes of the question -- in 1996 the percentage of public school children in special ed was 12.4%, and in 2014 the percentage was 12.9%. The percentage totals are similar, but the distribution among disability categories is different.

So the question is – what is causing the decrease in the disability categories of Specific Learning Disability, Intellectual Disability (previously Mentally Retarded), and Emotionally Disturbed? Where did these children go?

The data is just not consistent with your memory, or with some recent tsunami of children with vaccine-induced disabilities (percentage of total disabilities served in public schools has actually been trending down for over 10 years). Unless, applying the usual anti-vaccine correlation conclusion, vaccines are causing autism but curing SLD, ID, and ED.
Winnie
"Make it a powerful memory, the happiest you can remember."

Mouse
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Re: Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

Postby Mouse » Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:28 am

So the question is – what is causing the decrease in the disability categories of Specific Learning Disability, Intellectual Disability (previously Mentally Retarded), and Emotionally Disturbed? Where did these children go?

Does the study recognize that 20 years ago kids with Downs were very common, now more accurate testing and mothers are choosing to abort these children? I'm sure abortion skewed these numbers too.

Winnie
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Re: Spike in autism caused by a shift in diagnosis, Chapman study finds

Postby Winnie » Mon Jun 13, 2016 3:31 am

Mouse wrote:
So the question is – what is causing the decrease in the disability categories of Specific Learning Disability, Intellectual Disability (previously Mentally Retarded), and Emotionally Disturbed? Where did these children go?

Does the study recognize that 20 years ago kids with Downs were very common, now more accurate testing and mothers are choosing to abort these children? I'm sure abortion skewed these numbers too.


The study covered 2000-2015.

And FYI, amniocentesis has been around and routine for way over 20 years. But the abortion rate of DS children is not responsible for the steady decline in the ID category over the years, in either the national data or in the CA study. Not what you assumed:

2009 study, Pediatrics:
From 1979 through 2003, the prevalence of DS at birth increased by 31.1%
http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/124/6/1565

2012 article: Why So Many Babies Are Still Being Born With Down Syndrome?
http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/04/why-so-many-babies-are-still-being-born-with-down-syndrome/254869/

Not to mention that children born with DS are more likely to survive and to have a greater life expectancy than in years past.

So again, the question:

What is causing the decrease in the disability categories of Specific Learning Disability, Intellectual Disability (previously Mentally Retarded), and Emotionally Disturbed? Where did these children go?
Winnie
"Make it a powerful memory, the happiest you can remember."


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